PAS Giannina 3–2 Volos NFC: Result & Stats

PAS Giannina

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Volos NFC

12/11/2021

Super League 1 · Round 13Stadio Zosimades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

PAS Giannina42%

×Draw28%

Volos NFC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAS GianninaExpected goals in this matchVolos NFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.08

PAS Giannina

1.30

Volos NFC

1.08

PAS Giannina creates 20% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 118 away

0.89

creates per match

1.00

1.17

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

PAS Giannina

0.89

Volos NFC

1.00

allows per match

PAS Giannina

1.17

Volos NFC

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Volos NFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAS Giannina ↓

Volos NFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

PAS Giannina or draw

69%

PAS Giannina or Volos NFC

72%

Draw or Volos NFC

58%

Winning margin

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

19%

Volos NFC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

73%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

37%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

14%

Volos NFC 1+ goals

66%

Volos NFC 2+ goals

29%

Volos NFC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

57%

Volos NFC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAS Giannina at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

Volos NFC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAS Giannina attack 0.89 + Volos NFC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.30

Volos NFC attack 1.00 + PAS Giannina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

PAS Giannina scores more

42%

level

28%

Volos NFC scores more

31%

PAS Giannina at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "PAS Giannina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff