PAS Giannina 1–0 Asteras Tripolis: Result & Stats

PAS Giannina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Asteras Tripolis

5/6/2023

Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 6Stadio Zosimades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

PAS Giannina38%

×Draw30%

Asteras Tripolis32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PAS GianninaExpected goals in this matchAsteras Tripolis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.00

PAS Giannina

1.13

Asteras Tripolis

1.00

PAS Giannina creates 13% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 131 away

0.89

creates per match

0.84

1.17

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

PAS Giannina

0.89

Asteras Tripolis

0.84

allows per match

PAS Giannina

1.17

Asteras Tripolis

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Asteras Tripolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAS Giannina ↓

Asteras Tripolis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

PAS Giannina or draw

68%

PAS Giannina or Asteras Tripolis

70%

Draw or Asteras Tripolis

62%

Winning margin

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

16%

Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

68%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

31%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

11%

Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals

63%

Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals

26%

Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

55%

Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAS Giannina at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

Asteras Tripolis away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAS Giannina attack 0.89 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Asteras Tripolis attack 0.84 + PAS Giannina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

PAS Giannina scores more

38%

level

30%

Asteras Tripolis scores more

32%

PAS Giannina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "PAS Giannina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff