Pas de la Casa 1–0 Esperança d'Andorra

Pas de la Casa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Esperança d'Andorra

12/1/2024

1a Divisió · Round 10Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pas de la Casa49%

×Draw22%

Esperança d'Andorra29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pas de la CasaExpected goals in this matchEsperança d'Andorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.46

Pas de la Casa

1.97

Esperança d'Andorra

1.46

Pas de la Casa creates 35% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 41 away

1.00

creates per match

1.02

1.90

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Pas de la Casa

1.00

Esperança d'Andorra

1.02

allows per match

Pas de la Casa

1.90

Esperança d'Andorra

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pas de la Casa+0.00on par

Esperança d'Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pas de la Casa ↓

Esperança d'Andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Pas de la Casa or draw

71%

Pas de la Casa or Esperança d'Andorra

78%

Draw or Esperança d'Andorra

51%

Winning margin

Pas de la Casa wins by 2+

28%

Esperança d'Andorra wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pas de la Casa 1+ goals

86%

Pas de la Casa 2+ goals

58%

Pas de la Casa 3+ goals

31%

Esperança d'Andorra 1+ goals

77%

Esperança d'Andorra 2+ goals

43%

Esperança d'Andorra 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Pas de la Casa (draw refunded)

63%

Esperança d'Andorra (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pas de la Casa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

Esperança d'Andorra away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pas de la Casa attack 1.00 + Esperança d'Andorra defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 1.97

Esperança d'Andorra attack 1.02 + Pas de la Casa defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pas de la Casa scores more

49%

level

22%

Esperança d'Andorra scores more

29%

Pas de la Casa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pas de la Casa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff