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Parva atomna vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Parva atomna
Parva atomna
FT
2 – 0
Tryavna
Tryavna
5/16/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 31Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Parva atomna65%
×Draw19%
Tryavna16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parva atomna
2.23
Tryavna
1.01

Parva atomna creates 121% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 39 away

creates per match

Parva atomna
1.57
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Parva atomna
1.41
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Parva atomna+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parva atomna ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Parva atomna or draw
84%
Parva atomna or Tryavna
81%
Draw or Tryavna
35%

Winning margin

Parva atomna wins by 2+
41%
Tryavna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Parva atomna 1+ goals
89%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
65%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
38%
Tryavna 1+ goals
64%
Tryavna 2+ goals
27%
Tryavna 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Parva atomna (draw refunded)
80%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parva atomna at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parva atomna attack 1.57 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.23

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Parva atomna defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Parva atomna scores more
65%
level
19%
Tryavna scores more
16%

Parva atomna at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Parva atomna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Parva atomna 2–0 Tryavna

Parva atomna beat Tryavna 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Kozloduy.