Parva atomna 0–5 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Parva atomna

FT

0 – 5

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

8/7/2021

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 1Stadion Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Parva atomna25%

×Draw22%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Parva atomnaExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.96

Parva atomna

1.29

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

1.96

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 52% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 43 away

1.57

creates per match

2.51

1.41

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Parva atomna

1.57

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

2.51

allows per match

Parva atomna

1.41

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Parva atomna+0.00on par

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parva atomna ↓

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Parva atomna or draw

47%

Parva atomna or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

78%

Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

75%

Winning margin

Parva atomna wins by 2+

10%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Parva atomna 1+ goals

72%

Parva atomna 2+ goals

37%

Parva atomna 3+ goals

14%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals

86%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals

58%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Parva atomna (draw refunded)

32%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parva atomna at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.00 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parva atomna attack 1.57 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 2.51 + Parva atomna defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Parva atomna scores more

25%

level

22%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more

53%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff