Parva atomna 0–1 Levski Lom: Result & Stats

Parva atomna

FT

0 – 1

Levski Lom

10/11/2020

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 10Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Parva atomna23%

×Draw24%

Levski Lom53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Parva atomnaExpected goals in this matchLevski Lom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.71

Parva atomna

1.02

Levski Lom

1.71

Levski Lom creates 68% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

2.00

1.41

allows per match

0.47

creates per match

Parva atomna

1.57

Levski Lom

2.00

allows per match

Parva atomna

1.41

Levski Lom

0.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Parva atomna+0.00on par

Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parva atomna ↓

Levski Lom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Parva atomna or draw

47%

Parva atomna or Levski Lom

76%

Draw or Levski Lom

77%

Winning margin

Parva atomna wins by 2+

8%

Levski Lom wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Parva atomna 1+ goals

64%

Parva atomna 2+ goals

27%

Parva atomna 3+ goals

8%

Levski Lom 1+ goals

82%

Levski Lom 2+ goals

51%

Levski Lom 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Parva atomna (draw refunded)

30%

Levski Lom (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parva atomna at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parva atomna attack 1.57 + Levski Lom defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.02

Levski Lom attack 2.00 + Parva atomna defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Parva atomna scores more

23%

level

24%

Levski Lom scores more

53%

Levski Lom at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff