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Parva atomna vs Juventus Malchika — Third League - Northwest 2018

Parva atomna
Parva atomna
CANC
00:00
Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
4/5/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 18Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Parva atomna65%
×Draw19%
Juventus Malchika16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parva atomna
2.37
Juventus Malchika
1.10

Parva atomna creates 115% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 65 away

creates per match

Parva atomna
1.57
Juventus Malchika
0.80

allows per match

Parva atomna
1.41
Juventus Malchika
3.17

finishing

Parva atomna+0.00on par
Juventus Malchika+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parva atomna ↓

Juventus Malchika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Parva atomna or draw
84%
Parva atomna or Juventus Malchika
81%
Draw or Juventus Malchika
35%

Winning margin

Parva atomna wins by 2+
43%
Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Parva atomna 1+ goals
91%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
68%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
42%
Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
67%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
30%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Parva atomna (draw refunded)
80%
Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parva atomna at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

Juventus Malchika away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parva atomna attack 1.57 + Juventus Malchika defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.37

Juventus Malchika attack 0.80 + Parva atomna defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Parva atomna scores more
65%
level
19%
Juventus Malchika scores more
16%

Parva atomna at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Parva atomna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Parva atomna vs Juventus Malchika — Match Preview

Parva atomna face Juventus Malchika on April 5, 2020 in this Third League - Northwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Parva atomna host Juventus Malchika at Stadion Hristo Botev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.