Parva atomna 1–3 Akademik Svishtov: Result & Stats

Parva atomna

FT

1 – 3

Akademik Svishtov

4/25/2021

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 28Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Parva atomna45%

×Draw24%

Akademik Svishtov31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Parva atomnaExpected goals in this matchAkademik Svishtov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.30

Parva atomna

1.63

Akademik Svishtov

1.30

Parva atomna creates 25% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 104 away

1.57

creates per match

1.19

1.41

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Parva atomna

1.57

Akademik Svishtov

1.19

allows per match

Parva atomna

1.41

Akademik Svishtov

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Parva atomna+0.00on par

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parva atomna ↓

Akademik Svishtov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Parva atomna or draw

69%

Parva atomna or Akademik Svishtov

76%

Draw or Akademik Svishtov

55%

Winning margin

Parva atomna wins by 2+

23%

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Parva atomna 1+ goals

80%

Parva atomna 2+ goals

48%

Parva atomna 3+ goals

22%

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals

73%

Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals

37%

Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Parva atomna (draw refunded)

60%

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parva atomna at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

Akademik Svishtov away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parva atomna attack 1.57 + Akademik Svishtov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.63

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.19 + Parva atomna defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Parva atomna scores more

45%

level

24%

Akademik Svishtov scores more

31%

Parva atomna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Parva atomna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff