Partizani 2–0 Luftetari Gjirokaster: Result & Stats

Partizani

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Luftetari Gjirokaster

11/3/2019

Superliga · Round 11Stadiumi Selman Stërmasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Partizani61%

×Draw23%

Luftetari Gjirokaster16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PartizaniExpected goals in this matchLuftetari Gjirokaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.77

Partizani

1.76

Luftetari Gjirokaster

0.77

Partizani creates 129% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 36 away

1.46

creates per match

0.75

0.79

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Partizani

1.46

Luftetari Gjirokaster

0.75

allows per match

Partizani

0.79

Luftetari Gjirokaster

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partizani+0.00on par

Luftetari Gjirokaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizani ↓

Luftetari Gjirokaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Partizani or draw

84%

Partizani or Luftetari Gjirokaster

77%

Draw or Luftetari Gjirokaster

39%

Winning margin

Partizani wins by 2+

35%

Luftetari Gjirokaster wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Partizani 1+ goals

83%

Partizani 2+ goals

52%

Partizani 3+ goals

26%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 1+ goals

54%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 2+ goals

18%

Luftetari Gjirokaster 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Partizani (draw refunded)

79%

Luftetari Gjirokaster (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizani at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.79 · 146 matches

Luftetari Gjirokaster away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizani attack 1.46 + Luftetari Gjirokaster defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.76

Luftetari Gjirokaster attack 0.75 + Partizani defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Partizani scores more

61%

level

23%

Luftetari Gjirokaster scores more

16%

Partizani at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Partizani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff