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Partizani Tirana II vs Vora — 1st Division 2019

Partizani Tirana II
Partizani Tirana II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vora
Vora
3/28/20211st Division1st Division · Round 18Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Partizani Tirana II33%
×Draw25%
Vora41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizani Tirana II
1.30
Vora
1.47

Vora creates 13% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 58 away

creates per match

Partizani Tirana II
1.00
Vora
1.02

allows per match

Partizani Tirana II
1.92
Vora
1.60

finishing

Partizani Tirana II+0.00on par
Vora+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizani Tirana II ↓

Vora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Partizani Tirana II or draw
59%
Partizani Tirana II or Vora
75%
Draw or Vora
67%

Winning margin

Partizani Tirana II wins by 2+
15%
Vora wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Partizani Tirana II 1+ goals
73%
Partizani Tirana II 2+ goals
37%
Partizani Tirana II 3+ goals
14%
Vora 1+ goals
77%
Vora 2+ goals
43%
Vora 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Partizani Tirana II (draw refunded)
45%
Vora (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizani Tirana II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Vora away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizani Tirana II attack 1.00 + Vora defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Vora attack 1.02 + Partizani Tirana II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Partizani Tirana II scores more
33%
level
25%
Vora scores more
41%

Vora at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Partizani Tirana II vs Vora

Partizani Tirana II and Vora drew 1-1 in 1st Division on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Kompleksi Internacional in Pezë Helmës.