Partizani Tirana II 0–0 Oriku: Result & Stats

Partizani Tirana II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oriku

3/20/2021

1st Division · Round 16Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Partizani Tirana II35%

×Draw28%

Oriku36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Partizani Tirana IIExpected goals in this matchOriku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.16

Partizani Tirana II

1.14

Oriku

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 40 away

1.00

creates per match

0.40

1.92

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Partizani Tirana II

1.00

Oriku

0.40

allows per match

Partizani Tirana II

1.92

Oriku

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partizani Tirana II+0.00on par

Oriku+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizani Tirana II ↓

Oriku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Partizani Tirana II or draw

64%

Partizani Tirana II or Oriku

72%

Draw or Oriku

65%

Winning margin

Partizani Tirana II wins by 2+

14%

Oriku wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Partizani Tirana II 1+ goals

68%

Partizani Tirana II 2+ goals

32%

Partizani Tirana II 3+ goals

11%

Oriku 1+ goals

69%

Oriku 2+ goals

32%

Oriku 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Partizani Tirana II (draw refunded)

49%

Oriku (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizani Tirana II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Oriku away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizani Tirana II attack 1.00 + Oriku defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Oriku attack 0.40 + Partizani Tirana II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Partizani Tirana II scores more

35%

level

28%

Oriku scores more

36%

Oriku at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Oriku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff