Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Partizan vs Yantra Gabrovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Partizan
Partizan
FT
2 – 3
Yantra Gabrovo
Yantra Gabrovo
9/9/2018Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 5Gradski stadion (Cherven bryag)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Partizan28%
×Draw22%
Yantra Gabrovo50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizan
1.42
Yantra Gabrovo
1.96

Yantra Gabrovo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

creates per match

Partizan
1.72
Yantra Gabrovo
2.60

allows per match

Partizan
1.31
Yantra Gabrovo
1.13

finishing

Partizan+0.00on par
Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizan ↓

Yantra Gabrovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Partizan or draw
50%
Partizan or Yantra Gabrovo
78%
Draw or Yantra Gabrovo
72%

Winning margin

Partizan wins by 2+
12%
Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Partizan 1+ goals
76%
Partizan 2+ goals
41%
Partizan 3+ goals
17%
Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals
86%
Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals
58%
Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Partizan (draw refunded)
36%
Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizan at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 105 matches

Yantra Gabrovo away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizan attack 1.72 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Yantra Gabrovo attack 2.60 + Partizan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Partizan scores more
28%
level
22%
Yantra Gabrovo scores more
50%

Yantra Gabrovo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Partizan 2–3 Yantra Gabrovo

Yantra Gabrovo beat Partizan 3-2 in Third League - Northwest on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Cherven bryag).