Partizan 1–0 Parva atomna: Result & Stats

Partizan

FT

1 – 0

Parva atomna

9/22/2019

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Partizan62%

×Draw20%

Parva atomna18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PartizanExpected goals in this matchParva atomna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.08

Partizan

2.15

Parva atomna

1.08

Partizan creates 99% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 47 away

1.72

creates per match

0.85

1.31

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Partizan

1.72

Parva atomna

0.85

allows per match

Partizan

1.31

Parva atomna

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partizan+0.00on par

Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizan ↓

Parva atomna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Partizan or draw

82%

Partizan or Parva atomna

80%

Draw or Parva atomna

38%

Winning margin

Partizan wins by 2+

38%

Parva atomna wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Partizan 1+ goals

88%

Partizan 2+ goals

63%

Partizan 3+ goals

36%

Parva atomna 1+ goals

66%

Parva atomna 2+ goals

29%

Parva atomna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Partizan (draw refunded)

77%

Parva atomna (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizan at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 105 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizan attack 1.72 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.15

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + Partizan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Partizan scores more

62%

level

20%

Parva atomna scores more

18%

Partizan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff