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Partizan vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa — Third League - Northwest 2018

Partizan
Partizan
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
9/2/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 4Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Partizan27%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizan
1.36
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.91

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 40% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 43 away

creates per match

Partizan
1.72
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.51

allows per match

Partizan
1.31
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00

finishing

Partizan+0.00on par
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizan ↓

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Partizan or draw
50%
Partizan or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
73%

Winning margin

Partizan wins by 2+
12%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Partizan 1+ goals
74%
Partizan 2+ goals
39%
Partizan 3+ goals
16%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
57%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Partizan (draw refunded)
35%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizan at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 105 matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.00 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizan attack 1.72 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 2.51 + Partizan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Partizan scores more
27%
level
22%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
50%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Partizan 0–3 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat Partizan 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Cherven bryag.