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Partizan vs Etar VT II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Partizan
Partizan
FT
2 – 1
Etar VT II
Etar VT II
4/18/2025Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 21Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Partizan59%
×Draw21%
Etar VT II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizan
2.04
Etar VT II
1.08

Partizan creates 89% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 85 away

creates per match

Partizan
1.72
Etar VT II
0.85

allows per match

Partizan
1.31
Etar VT II
2.35

finishing

Partizan+0.00on par
Etar VT II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizan ↓

Etar VT II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Partizan or draw
80%
Partizan or Etar VT II
79%
Draw or Etar VT II
41%

Winning margin

Partizan wins by 2+
36%
Etar VT II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Partizan 1+ goals
87%
Partizan 2+ goals
60%
Partizan 3+ goals
33%
Etar VT II 1+ goals
66%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
29%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Partizan (draw refunded)
75%
Etar VT II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizan at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 105 matches

Etar VT II away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.35 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizan attack 1.72 + Etar VT II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.04

Etar VT II attack 0.85 + Partizan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Partizan scores more
59%
level
21%
Etar VT II scores more
20%

Partizan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Partizan 2–1 Etar VT II

Partizan beat Etar VT II 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Cherven bryag.