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Partizan vs Botev Lukovit — Third League - Northwest 2018

Partizan
Partizan
FT
1 – 1
Botev Lukovit
Botev Lukovit
11/4/2018Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 14Gradski stadion (Cherven bryag)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Partizan55%
×Draw23%
Botev Lukovit22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partizan
1.82
Botev Lukovit
1.06

Partizan creates 72% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

creates per match

Partizan
1.72
Botev Lukovit
0.80

allows per match

Partizan
1.31
Botev Lukovit
1.93

finishing

Partizan+0.00on par
Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizan ↓

Botev Lukovit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Partizan or draw
78%
Partizan or Botev Lukovit
77%
Draw or Botev Lukovit
45%

Winning margin

Partizan wins by 2+
31%
Botev Lukovit wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Partizan 1+ goals
84%
Partizan 2+ goals
54%
Partizan 3+ goals
27%
Botev Lukovit 1+ goals
65%
Botev Lukovit 2+ goals
29%
Botev Lukovit 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Partizan (draw refunded)
71%
Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizan at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 105 matches

Botev Lukovit away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizan attack 1.72 + Botev Lukovit defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.82

Botev Lukovit attack 0.80 + Partizan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Partizan scores more
55%
level
23%
Botev Lukovit scores more
22%

Partizan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Partizan 1–1 Botev Lukovit

Partizan and Botev Lukovit drew 1-1 in Third League - Northwest on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Cherven bryag).