Partizan U19 0–2 Sporting Braga U19: Result & Stats

Partizan U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Braga U19

Afonso Duarte 90+2'

Roger Fernandes 64'

2/7/2024

UEFA Youth League · Play-offsStadion Partizana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Partizan U1943%

×Draw22%

Sporting Braga U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Partizan U19Expected goals in this matchSporting Braga U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.67

Partizan U19

1.88

Sporting Braga U19

1.67

Partizan U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

2.00

1.33

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Partizan U19

3.00

Sporting Braga U19

2.00

allows per match

Partizan U19

1.33

Sporting Braga U19

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partizan U19+0.00on par

Sporting Braga U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizan U19 ↓

Sporting Braga U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Partizan U19 or draw

65%

Partizan U19 or Sporting Braga U19

78%

Draw or Sporting Braga U19

57%

Winning margin

Partizan U19 wins by 2+

23%

Sporting Braga U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Partizan U19 1+ goals

85%

Partizan U19 2+ goals

56%

Partizan U19 3+ goals

29%

Sporting Braga U19 1+ goals

81%

Sporting Braga U19 2+ goals

50%

Sporting Braga U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Partizan U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Sporting Braga U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizan U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Sporting Braga U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizan U19 attack 3.00 + Sporting Braga U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sporting Braga U19 attack 2.00 + Partizan U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Partizan U19 scores more

43%

level

22%

Sporting Braga U19 scores more

35%

Partizan U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Partizan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

A. Celic

38'

Chissumba

56'

Z. Alilović← M. Ninić

64'

Roger Fernandes

71'

Afonso Duarte← Kauan Kelvin

77'

João Faria← Dinis Rodrigues

77'

Tomás Marques← João Vasconcelos

78'

D. Jovanovic

82'

M. Petrović← O. Ugresić

82'

B. Kostić← V. Dragojević

84'

Rúben Furtado← Diego Rodrigues

84'

Nuno Patrício← Guilherme Costa

86'

G. R. Faria J. D. V.

90+3'

M. Petrovic

90+4'

A. F. Duarte

90+4'

N. Simic

90+5'

B. Kostic

90+2'

Afonso Duarte↳ Rúben Furtado

Partizan

Sporting

1

5

4

3

2

▼

Costa

10

▼

Vasconcel

8

▼

Rodrigues

6

Barbosa

11

⚽

Fernandes

9

▼

Rodrigues

7

▼

1

5

3

4

15

45

20

14

▼

Dragojevi

18

▼

Ugresić

9

Jovanović

16

▼

Ninić

Manager: N. Stojaković

56'▲Z. Alilović←▼M. Ninić

82'▲M. Petrović←▼O. Ugresić

82'▲B. Kostić←▼V. Dragojević

Partizan U19 substitutes

8Alilović10Petrović7Kostić6Petrović12Jovanović11Totić13Filipović

Manager: Pedro Pires

71'▲Afonso Duarte←▼Kauan Kelvin

77'▲João Faria←▼Dinis Rodrigues

77'▲Tomás Marques←▼João Vasconcelos

84'▲Rúben Furtado←▼Diego Rodrigues

84'▲Nuno Patrício←▼Guilherme Costa

Sporting Braga U19 substitutes

16Duarte15Faria13Marques17Furtado18Patrício12Amorim14Salvador

Match Recap: Partizan U19 vs Sporting Braga U19

Sporting Braga U19 beat Partizan U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on February 7, 2024.

Goals: Roger Fernandes (64'), Afonso Duarte (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion Partizana in Beograd.

Partizan U19 vs Sporting Braga U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Partizan U19 vs Sporting Braga U19