Partizan U19 5–2 Sheriff U19: Result & Stats

Partizan U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Sheriff U19

N. Trifunović 73', 25'

B. Mirčetić 65'

D. Jovanović 34', 24'

A. Dijinari 90+1', 80'

11/28/2023

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundStadion Partizana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Partizan U1971%

×Draw16%

Sheriff U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Partizan U19Expected goals in this matchSheriff U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

1.23

Partizan U19

2.88

Sheriff U19

1.23

Partizan U19 creates 134% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

3.00

creates per match

1.13

1.33

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Partizan U19

3.00

Sheriff U19

1.13

allows per match

Partizan U19

1.33

Sheriff U19

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partizan U19+0.00on par

Sheriff U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizan U19 ↓

Sheriff U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Partizan U19 or draw

86%

Partizan U19 or Sheriff U19

84%

Draw or Sheriff U19

29%

Winning margin

Partizan U19 wins by 2+

50%

Sheriff U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Partizan U19 1+ goals

94%

Partizan U19 2+ goals

78%

Partizan U19 3+ goals

54%

Sheriff U19 1+ goals

71%

Sheriff U19 2+ goals

35%

Sheriff U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Partizan U19 (draw refunded)

84%

Sheriff U19 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizan U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Sheriff U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizan U19 attack 3.00 + Sheriff U19 defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.88

Sheriff U19 attack 1.13 + Partizan U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Partizan U19 scores more

71%

level

16%

Sheriff U19 scores more

14%

Partizan U19 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Partizan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

V. Dragojevic

24'

D. Jovanović

25'

N. Trifunović

34'

D. Jovanović

45+4'

S. Gresciuc

51'

P. Petrović← V. Dragojević

55'

D. Plesca

62'

65'

66'

73'

75'

M. Petrović← N. Trifunović

80'

A. Dijinari

86'

A. Bolişacov← V. Yaţco

86'

V. Burcă← D. Guşpit

86'

S. Tomailȋ← S. Greşciuc

90+3'

V. Gutu

90+1'

A. Dijinari

Partizan

Sheriff

12

Dumenco

29

▼

Yaţco

27

▼

Greşciuc

11

Covalschi

19

Sandeţchi

6

⚽2

Dijinari

80

▼

Guşpit

3

Guțu

17

▼

Spatar

10

Boţan

9

▼

1

3

4

15

45

20

⚽

Mirčetić

8

Alilović

14

▼

Dragojevi

18

Ugresić

43

⚽2

▼

Trifunovi

9

⚽2

Jovanović

Manager: N. Stojaković

51'▲P. Petrović←▼V. Dragojević

75'▲M. Petrović←▼N. Trifunović

Partizan U19 substitutes

6Petrović10Petrović5Simić19Jovanović24Tadić11Kostić7Bajramović

Manager: A. Corneencov

62'▲M.Cȋrnaţ←▼N. Spatar

66'▲D. Hagiu←▼D. Pleşca

86'▲A. Bolişacov←▼V. Yaţco

86'▲V. Burcă←▼D. Guşpit

86'▲S. Tomailȋ←▼S. Greşciuc

Sheriff U19 substitutes

7M.Cȋrnaţ32Hagiu16Bolişacov24Burcă20Tomailȋ1Obîscalov18Dracuc

UEFA Youth League: Partizan U19 5–2 Sheriff U19

Partizan U19 beat Sheriff U19 5-2 in UEFA Youth League on November 28, 2023.

Goals: D. Jovanović (24', 34'), N. Trifunović (25', 73'), B. Mirčetić (65'), A. Dijinari (80', 90+1').

The match was played at Stadion Partizana in Beograd.

Partizan U19 vs Sheriff U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Partizan U19 5–2 Sheriff U19