Partizán Bardejov 0–1 Slávia TU Košice

Partizán Bardejov

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slávia TU Košice

11/2/2024

3. liga - East · East - 14Mestský štadión Partizán Bardejov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Partizán Bardejov40%

×Draw24%

Slávia TU Košice36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Partizán BardejovExpected goals in this matchSlávia TU Košice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.48

Partizán Bardejov

1.56

Slávia TU Košice

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 66 away

1.61

creates per match

1.45

1.52

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Partizán Bardejov

1.61

Slávia TU Košice

1.45

allows per match

Partizán Bardejov

1.52

Slávia TU Košice

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par

Slávia TU Košice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partizán Bardejov ↓

Slávia TU Košice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Partizán Bardejov or draw

64%

Partizán Bardejov or Slávia TU Košice

76%

Draw or Slávia TU Košice

60%

Winning margin

Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+

20%

Slávia TU Košice wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals

79%

Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals

46%

Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals

21%

Slávia TU Košice 1+ goals

77%

Slávia TU Košice 2+ goals

43%

Slávia TU Košice 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)

52%

Slávia TU Košice (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partizán Bardejov at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Slávia TU Košice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partizán Bardejov attack 1.61 + Slávia TU Košice defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Slávia TU Košice attack 1.45 + Partizán Bardejov defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Partizán Bardejov scores more

40%

level

24%

Slávia TU Košice scores more

36%

Partizán Bardejov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Partizán Bardejov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff