Partick 2–0 Ross County: Result & Stats

Partick

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ross County

6/1/2023

Premiership · Relegation RoundFirhill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Partick51%

×Draw24%

Ross County25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PartickExpected goals in this matchRoss County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.15

Partick

1.73

Ross County

1.15

Partick creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 92 away

1.70

creates per match

0.90

1.40

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Partick

1.70

Ross County

0.90

allows per match

Partick

1.40

Ross County

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partick+0.00on par

Ross County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partick ↓

Ross County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Partick or draw

75%

Partick or Ross County

76%

Draw or Ross County

49%

Winning margin

Partick wins by 2+

28%

Ross County wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Partick 1+ goals

82%

Partick 2+ goals

52%

Partick 3+ goals

25%

Ross County 1+ goals

68%

Ross County 2+ goals

32%

Ross County 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Partick (draw refunded)

67%

Ross County (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partick at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Ross County away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.77 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partick attack 1.70 + Ross County defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ross County attack 0.90 + Partick defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Partick scores more

51%

level

24%

Ross County scores more

25%

Partick at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Partick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff