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Partick vs Montrose — League #183 2026

Partick
Partick
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Montrose
Montrose
4/15/2021League #183League #183 · Round 17The Energy Check Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Partick73%
×Draw16%
Montrose10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partick
2.50
Montrose
0.83

Partick creates 201% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

Partick
3.00
Montrose
1.00

allows per match

Partick
0.67
Montrose
2.00

finishing

Partick+0.00on par
Montrose+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partick ↓

Montrose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Partick or draw
90%
Partick or Montrose
84%
Draw or Montrose
27%

Winning margin

Partick wins by 2+
51%
Montrose wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Partick 1+ goals
92%
Partick 2+ goals
71%
Partick 3+ goals
45%
Montrose 1+ goals
56%
Montrose 2+ goals
20%
Montrose 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Partick (draw refunded)
87%
Montrose (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partick at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Montrose away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partick attack 3.00 + Montrose defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Montrose attack 1.00 + Partick defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Partick scores more
73%
level
16%
Montrose scores more
10%

Partick at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Partick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Partick vs Montrose

Partick beat Montrose 5-0 in League #183 on April 15, 2021.

The match was played at The Energy Check Stadium in Glasgow.