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Montrose vs Partick — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Montrose
Montrose
CANC
13:00
Partick
Partick
7/9/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Links Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Montrose44%
×Draw23%
Partick33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montrose
1.75
Partick
1.50

Montrose creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Montrose
2.50
Partick
1.67

allows per match

Montrose
1.33
Partick
1.00

finishing

Montrose+0.00on par
Partick+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montrose ↓

Partick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Montrose or draw
67%
Montrose or Partick
77%
Draw or Partick
56%

Winning margin

Montrose wins by 2+
23%
Partick wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Montrose 1+ goals
83%
Montrose 2+ goals
52%
Montrose 3+ goals
25%
Partick 1+ goals
78%
Partick 2+ goals
44%
Partick 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Montrose (draw refunded)
57%
Partick (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montrose at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Partick away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montrose attack 2.50 + Partick defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Partick attack 1.67 + Montrose defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Montrose scores more
44%
level
23%
Partick scores more
33%

Montrose at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Montrose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Montrose host Partick

July 9, 2023: Montrose take on Partick in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Montrose host Partick at Links Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.