Partick 1–2 Inverness CT: Result & Stats

Partick

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Inverness CT

R. Crawford 54'

A. Samuels 82'

S. Sutherland 71'

5/3/2022

Premiership · Relegation RoundFirhill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Partick63%

×Draw20%

Inverness CT17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PartickExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.03

Partick

2.19

Inverness CT

1.03

Partick creates 113% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.70

creates per match

0.67

1.40

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Partick

1.70

Inverness CT

0.67

allows per match

Partick

1.40

Inverness CT

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Partick+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partick ↓

Inverness CT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Partick or draw

83%

Partick or Inverness CT

80%

Draw or Inverness CT

37%

Winning margin

Partick wins by 2+

40%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Partick 1+ goals

89%

Partick 2+ goals

64%

Partick 3+ goals

37%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

64%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

28%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Partick (draw refunded)

79%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partick at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partick attack 1.70 + Inverness CT defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.19

Inverness CT attack 0.67 + Partick defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Partick scores more

63%

level

20%

Inverness CT scores more

17%

Partick at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Partick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

L. Hyde← T. Walsh

40'

Stephen Hendrie

49'

Logan Chalmers

54'

R. Crawford↳ B. Graham

60'

A. Samuels← L. Hyde

71'

S. Sutherland

74'

J. Alegría← A. Jakubiak

75'

J. Hardy← B. McKay

75'

C. Harper← L. Chalmers

76'

Brian Graham

82'

A. Samuels↳ S. Sutherland

86'

C. Smith← B. Graham

90+2'

Austin Samuels

Statistics

PartickInverness

Overview

6Corners3

Discipline

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0