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Partick vs Falkirk — League Cup 2018

Partick
Partick
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Falkirk
Falkirk
7/22/2023League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 5Wyre Stadium at Firhill

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Partick45%
×Draw22%
Falkirk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partick
1.90
Falkirk
1.58

Partick creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

creates per match

Partick
2.11
Falkirk
2.00

allows per match

Partick
1.16
Falkirk
1.69

finishing

Partick+0.00on par
Falkirk+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partick ↓

Falkirk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Partick or draw
68%
Partick or Falkirk
78%
Draw or Falkirk
55%

Winning margin

Partick wins by 2+
25%
Falkirk wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Partick 1+ goals
85%
Partick 2+ goals
56%
Partick 3+ goals
29%
Falkirk 1+ goals
79%
Falkirk 2+ goals
47%
Falkirk 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Partick (draw refunded)
58%
Falkirk (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partick at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Falkirk away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partick attack 2.11 + Falkirk defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.90

Falkirk attack 2.00 + Partick defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Partick scores more
45%
level
22%
Falkirk scores more
32%

Partick at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Partick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Partick 2–2 Falkirk

Partick and Falkirk drew 2-2 in League Cup on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Wyre Stadium at Firhill in Glasgow.