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Partick vs Dundee Utd — League #180 2026

Partick
Partick
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
3/2/2024League #180League #180 · Round 27Wyre Stadium at Firhill

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Partick16%
×Draw20%
Dundee Utd64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Partick
0.99
Dundee Utd
2.17

Dundee Utd creates 119% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Partick
1.73
Dundee Utd
3.25

allows per match

Partick
1.09
Dundee Utd
0.25

finishing

Partick+0.00on par
Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Partick ↓

Dundee Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Partick or draw
36%
Partick or Dundee Utd
80%
Draw or Dundee Utd
84%

Winning margin

Partick wins by 2+
6%
Dundee Utd wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Partick 1+ goals
63%
Partick 2+ goals
26%
Partick 3+ goals
8%
Dundee Utd 1+ goals
89%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
64%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Partick (draw refunded)
20%
Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Partick at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Dundee Utd away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Partick attack 1.73 + Dundee Utd defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Dundee Utd attack 3.25 + Partick defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Partick scores more
16%
level
20%
Dundee Utd scores more
64%

Dundee Utd at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Partick vs Dundee Utd

Partick and Dundee Utd drew 1-1 in League #180 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Wyre Stadium at Firhill in Glasgow.