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Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Shahrdari Hamedan — Azadegan League 2018

Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
FT
1 – 0
Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
12/2/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM47%
×Draw32%
Shahrdari Hamedan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.13
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.65

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 74% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 33 away

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.28
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.52

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.77
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par
Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Shahrdari Hamedan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw
79%
Pars Jonoubi JAM or Shahrdari Hamedan
68%
Draw or Shahrdari Hamedan
53%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
20%
Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
68%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
31%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
11%
Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
48%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
14%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
69%
Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Shahrdari Hamedan away — creates 0.52, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.52 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
47%
level
32%
Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
21%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Pars Jonoubi JAM 1–0 Shahrdari Hamedan

Pars Jonoubi JAM beat Shahrdari Hamedan 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 2, 2021.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Jam.