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Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Omid Vahdat — Azadegan League 2018

Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
FT
3 – 0
Omid Vahdat
Omid Vahdat
11/6/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM89%
×Draw8%
Omid Vahdat2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pars Jonoubi JAM
3.14
Omid Vahdat
0.39

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 705% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 3 away

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.28
Omid Vahdat
0.00

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.77
Omid Vahdat
5.00

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par
Omid Vahdat+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Omid Vahdat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (16%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw
98%
Pars Jonoubi JAM or Omid Vahdat
92%
Draw or Omid Vahdat
11%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
73%
Omid Vahdat wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
95%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
81%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
59%
Omid Vahdat 1+ goals
32%
Omid Vahdat 2+ goals
6%
Omid Vahdat 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
97%
Omid Vahdat (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Omid Vahdat away — creates 0.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Omid Vahdat defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.14

Omid Vahdat attack 0.00 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
89%
level
8%
Omid Vahdat scores more
2%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Omid Vahdat

Pars Jonoubi JAM beat Omid Vahdat 3-0 in Azadegan League on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Jam.