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Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Niroye Zamini — Azadegan League 2018

Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
F. Najafi 57' (pen), 29'
M. Hasheminasab 88'
12/12/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM45%
×Draw30%
Niroye Zamini24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.18
Niroye Zamini
0.78

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 51% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 49 away

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.28
Niroye Zamini
0.78

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.77
Niroye Zamini
1.08

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par
Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Niroye Zamini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw
76%
Pars Jonoubi JAM or Niroye Zamini
70%
Draw or Niroye Zamini
55%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
20%
Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
69%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
33%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
12%
Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
54%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
18%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
65%
Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Niroye Zamini attack 0.78 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
45%
level
30%
Niroye Zamini scores more
24%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
F. Najafi
57'
F. NajafiPenalty
88'
M. Hasheminasab
Pars
Niroye
M. Nosrati
Manager: M. Nosrati
A. Rouzbehani
Manager: A. Rouzbehani

Match Recap: Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Niroye Zamini

Pars Jonoubi JAM beat Niroye Zamini 2-1 in Azadegan League on December 12, 2025.

Goals: F. Najafi (29', 57' pen), M. Hasheminasab (88').