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Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Mes Soongoun — Azadegan League 2018

Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
FT
2 – 1
Mes Soongoun
Mes Soongoun
11/2/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 10Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM52%
×Draw30%
Mes Soongoun18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.26
Mes Soongoun
0.62

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 103% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.28
Mes Soongoun
0.47

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.77
Mes Soongoun
1.24

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par
Mes Soongoun+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Mes Soongoun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw
82%
Pars Jonoubi JAM or Mes Soongoun
70%
Draw or Mes Soongoun
48%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
24%
Mes Soongoun wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
72%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
36%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
13%
Mes Soongoun 1+ goals
46%
Mes Soongoun 2+ goals
13%
Mes Soongoun 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
74%
Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Mes Soongoun away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Mes Soongoun defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.26

Mes Soongoun attack 0.47 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
52%
level
30%
Mes Soongoun scores more
18%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Mes Soongoun

Pars Jonoubi JAM beat Mes Soongoun 2-1 in Azadegan League on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Jam.