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Mes Soongoun vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Soongoun
Mes Soongoun
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
4/15/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Mes Soongoun40%
×Draw31%
Pars Jonoubi JAM29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Soongoun
1.10
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.88

Mes Soongoun creates 25% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 100 away

creates per match

Mes Soongoun
1.08
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Mes Soongoun
0.86
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Mes Soongoun+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Soongoun ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mes Soongoun or draw
71%
Mes Soongoun or Pars Jonoubi JAM
69%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
60%

Winning margin

Mes Soongoun wins by 2+
17%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mes Soongoun 1+ goals
67%
Mes Soongoun 2+ goals
30%
Mes Soongoun 3+ goals
10%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
59%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
22%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)
58%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Soongoun at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Soongoun attack 1.08 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Mes Soongoun defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mes Soongoun scores more
40%
level
31%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
29%

Mes Soongoun at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mes Soongoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Soongoun 1–1 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Mes Soongoun and Pars Jonoubi JAM drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on April 15, 2024.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium in Tabriz.