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Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
11/28/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM39%
×Draw33%
Mes Kerman28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.98
Mes Kerman
0.78

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 26% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 116 away

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.28
Mes Kerman
0.78

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.77
Mes Kerman
0.69

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw
72%
Pars Jonoubi JAM or Mes Kerman
67%
Draw or Mes Kerman
61%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
15%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
62%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
26%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
8%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
54%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
18%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
58%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Mes Kerman defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.98

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
39%
level
33%
Mes Kerman scores more
28%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Mes Kerman

Mes Kerman beat Pars Jonoubi JAM 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 28, 2025.