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Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
9/9/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 1Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM39%
×Draw31%
Fajr Sepasi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.07
Fajr Sepasi
0.90

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 19% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 98 away

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.28
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.77
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw
70%
Pars Jonoubi JAM or Fajr Sepasi
69%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
61%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
16%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
66%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
29%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
9%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
59%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
23%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
56%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.07

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
39%
level
31%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
30%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Pars Jonoubi JAM 0–1 Fajr Sepasi

Fajr Sepasi beat Pars Jonoubi JAM 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 9, 2024.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Jam.