Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Darya Babol — Azadegan League 2018

Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Darya Babol
Darya Babol
12/13/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM47%
×Draw30%
Darya Babol23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.20
Darya Babol
0.74

Pars Jonoubi JAM creates 62% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.28
Darya Babol
0.71

allows per match

Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.77
Darya Babol
1.12

finishing

Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par
Darya Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pars Jonoubi JAM ↓

Darya Babol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw
77%
Pars Jonoubi JAM or Darya Babol
70%
Draw or Darya Babol
53%

Winning margin

Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
21%
Darya Babol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
70%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
34%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
12%
Darya Babol 1+ goals
52%
Darya Babol 2+ goals
17%
Darya Babol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
67%
Darya Babol (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 102 matches

Darya Babol away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 1.28 + Darya Babol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Darya Babol attack 0.71 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
47%
level
30%
Darya Babol scores more
23%

Pars Jonoubi JAM at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pars Jonoubi JAM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Pars Jonoubi JAM 2–1 Darya Babol

Pars Jonoubi JAM beat Darya Babol 2-1 in Azadegan League on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Jam.