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Paro vs Thimphu Raven — Premier League 2023

Paro
Paro
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Thimphu Raven
Thimphu Raven
9/15/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Woochu Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Paro87%
×Draw8%
Thimphu Raven5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paro
4.19
Thimphu Raven
1.02

Paro creates 311% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 9 away

creates per match

Paro
4.71
Thimphu Raven
1.00

allows per match

Paro
1.03
Thimphu Raven
3.67

finishing

Paro+0.00on par
Thimphu Raven+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paro ↓

Thimphu Raven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Paro or draw
95%
Paro or Thimphu Raven
92%
Draw or Thimphu Raven
13%

Winning margin

Paro wins by 2+
73%
Thimphu Raven wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Paro 1+ goals
98%
Paro 2+ goals
91%
Paro 3+ goals
76%
Thimphu Raven 1+ goals
64%
Thimphu Raven 2+ goals
27%
Thimphu Raven 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Paro (draw refunded)
95%
Thimphu Raven (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paro at home — creates 4.71, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Thimphu Raven away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paro attack 4.71 + Thimphu Raven defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 4.19

Thimphu Raven attack 1.00 + Paro defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Paro scores more
87%
level
8%
Thimphu Raven scores more
5%

Paro at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paro vs Thimphu Raven

Paro beat Thimphu Raven 4-1 in Premier League on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Woochu Sports Arena in Paro.