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Paro vs RTC — Premier League 2023

Paro
Paro
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RTC
RTC
11/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Woochu Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Paro66%
×Draw16%
RTC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paro
3.08
RTC
1.58

Paro creates 95% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Paro
4.71
RTC
2.13

allows per match

Paro
1.03
RTC
1.45

finishing

Paro+0.00on par
RTC+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paro ↓

RTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Paro or draw
82%
Paro or RTC
84%
Draw or RTC
34%

Winning margin

Paro wins by 2+
47%
RTC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Paro 1+ goals
95%
Paro 2+ goals
81%
Paro 3+ goals
58%
RTC 1+ goals
79%
RTC 2+ goals
47%
RTC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Paro (draw refunded)
79%
RTC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paro at home — creates 4.71, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

RTC away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paro attack 4.71 + RTC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 3.08

RTC attack 2.13 + Paro defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Paro scores more
66%
level
16%
RTC scores more
18%

Paro at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paro vs RTC

Paro beat RTC 4-0 in Premier League on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Woochu Sports Arena in Paro.