Paro 10–0 Bhutan U19: Result & Stats

Paro

FT

10 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Bhutan U19

12/3/2023

Premier League · Round 9Woochu Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Paro81%

×Draw11%

Bhutan U198%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParoExpected goals in this matchBhutan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.64

1.15

Paro

3.64

Bhutan U19

1.15

Paro creates 217% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 23 away

4.71

creates per match

1.26

1.03

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Paro

4.71

Bhutan U19

1.26

allows per match

Paro

1.03

Bhutan U19

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paro+0.00on par

Bhutan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paro ↓

Bhutan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Paro or draw

92%

Paro or Bhutan U19

89%

Draw or Bhutan U19

19%

Winning margin

Paro wins by 2+

64%

Bhutan U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Paro 1+ goals

97%

Paro 2+ goals

87%

Paro 3+ goals

68%

Bhutan U19 1+ goals

68%

Bhutan U19 2+ goals

32%

Bhutan U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Paro (draw refunded)

91%

Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paro at home — creates 4.71, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Bhutan U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paro attack 4.71 + Bhutan U19 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 3.64

Bhutan U19 attack 1.26 + Paro defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Paro scores more

81%

level

11%

Bhutan U19 scores more

8%

Paro at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff