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Pärnu vs Vigri Maarjamäe — Cup 2020

Pärnu
Pärnuadvanced
FT
9 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vigri Maarjamäe
Vigri Maarjamäe
7/8/2022CupCup · Round of 64Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pärnu95%
×Draw3%
Vigri Maarjamäe1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pärnu
6.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.88

Pärnu creates 582% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pärnu
3.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.50

allows per match

Pärnu
1.25
Vigri Maarjamäe
9.00

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par
Vigri Maarjamäe+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

Vigri Maarjamäe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 47% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
85%15%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw
99%
Pärnu or Vigri Maarjamäe
97%
Draw or Vigri Maarjamäe
5%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+
88%
Vigri Maarjamäe wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals
100%
Pärnu 2+ goals
97%
Pärnu 3+ goals
90%
Vigri Maarjamäe 1+ goals
59%
Vigri Maarjamäe 2+ goals
22%
Vigri Maarjamäe 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)
98%
Vigri Maarjamäe (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Vigri Maarjamäe away — creates 0.50, concedes 9.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 3.00 + Vigri Maarjamäe defence 9.00 → ÷2 → 6.00

Vigri Maarjamäe attack 0.50 + Pärnu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Pärnu scores more
95%
level
3%
Vigri Maarjamäe scores more
1%

Pärnu at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Pärnu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Pärnu 9–0 Vigri Maarjamäe

Pärnu beat Vigri Maarjamäe 9-0 in Cup on July 8, 2022.

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.