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Pärnu vs TJK Legion II — Cup 2020

Pärnu
Pärnuadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TJK Legion II
TJK Legion II
8/9/2021CupCup · Round of 64Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pärnu90%
×Draw6%
TJK Legion II3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pärnu
4.67
TJK Legion II
0.96

Pärnu creates 386% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Pärnu
3.00
TJK Legion II
0.67

allows per match

Pärnu
1.25
TJK Legion II
6.33

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par
TJK Legion II+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

TJK Legion II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw
97%
Pärnu or TJK Legion II
94%
Draw or TJK Legion II
10%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+
79%
TJK Legion II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals
99%
Pärnu 2+ goals
93%
Pärnu 3+ goals
81%
TJK Legion II 1+ goals
62%
TJK Legion II 2+ goals
25%
TJK Legion II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)
96%
TJK Legion II (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

TJK Legion II away — creates 0.67, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 3.00 + TJK Legion II defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 4.67

TJK Legion II attack 0.67 + Pärnu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Pärnu scores more
90%
level
6%
TJK Legion II scores more
3%

Pärnu at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Pärnu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pärnu vs TJK Legion II

Pärnu beat TJK Legion II 2-0 in Cup on August 9, 2021.

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.