Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pärnu vs Tartu Welco — Esiliiga A 2026

Pärnu
Pärnu
CANC
16:00
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
5/27/2021Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 15Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pärnu39%
×Draw23%
Tartu Welco39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pärnu
1.73
Tartu Welco
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 75 away

creates per match

Pärnu
1.58
Tartu Welco
1.73

allows per match

Pärnu
1.74
Tartu Welco
1.89

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par
Tartu Welco+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

Tartu Welco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw
61%
Pärnu or Tartu Welco
77%
Draw or Tartu Welco
61%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+
20%
Tartu Welco wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals
82%
Pärnu 2+ goals
52%
Pärnu 3+ goals
25%
Tartu Welco 1+ goals
82%
Tartu Welco 2+ goals
52%
Tartu Welco 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)
50%
Tartu Welco (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

Tartu Welco away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.89 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 1.58 + Tartu Welco defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tartu Welco attack 1.73 + Pärnu defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pärnu scores more
39%
level
23%
Tartu Welco scores more
39%

Pärnu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pärnu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pärnu host Tartu Welco

May 27, 2021: Pärnu take on Tartu Welco in Esiliiga A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Pärnu host Tartu Welco at Pärnu Rannastaadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.