Pärnu 2–5 Nõmme Kalju II: Result & Stats

Pärnu

FT

2 – 5

Nõmme Kalju II

3/10/2024

Esiliiga B · Round 2Pärnu Rehepapi kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pärnu26%

×Draw18%

Nõmme Kalju II55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PärnuExpected goals in this matchNõmme Kalju II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

2.75

Pärnu

1.89

Nõmme Kalju II

2.75

Nõmme Kalju II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.67

creates per match

2.61

2.89

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Pärnu

1.67

Nõmme Kalju II

2.61

allows per match

Pärnu

2.89

Nõmme Kalju II

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par

Nõmme Kalju II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

Nõmme Kalju II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw

45%

Pärnu or Nõmme Kalju II

82%

Draw or Nõmme Kalju II

74%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+

13%

Nõmme Kalju II wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals

85%

Pärnu 2+ goals

56%

Pärnu 3+ goals

29%

Nõmme Kalju II 1+ goals

93%

Nõmme Kalju II 2+ goals

75%

Nõmme Kalju II 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)

32%

Nõmme Kalju II (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.89 · 18 matches

Nõmme Kalju II away — creates 2.61, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 1.67 + Nõmme Kalju II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.89

Nõmme Kalju II attack 2.61 + Pärnu defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pärnu scores more

26%

level

18%

Nõmme Kalju II scores more

55%

Nõmme Kalju II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nõmme Kalju II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff