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Pärnu vs Kuressaare II — Esiliiga B 2026

Pärnu
Pärnu
FT
1 – 3
Kuressaare II
Kuressaare II
6/20/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 13Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pärnu37%
×Draw20%
Kuressaare II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pärnu
2.12
Kuressaare II
2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 36 away

creates per match

Pärnu
1.67
Kuressaare II
1.64

allows per match

Pärnu
2.89
Kuressaare II
2.56

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par
Kuressaare II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

Kuressaare II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw
57%
Pärnu or Kuressaare II
80%
Draw or Kuressaare II
63%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+
20%
Kuressaare II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals
88%
Pärnu 2+ goals
62%
Pärnu 3+ goals
35%
Kuressaare II 1+ goals
90%
Kuressaare II 2+ goals
66%
Kuressaare II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)
47%
Kuressaare II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.89 · 18 matches

Kuressaare II away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 1.67 + Kuressaare II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.12

Kuressaare II attack 1.64 + Pärnu defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pärnu scores more
37%
level
20%
Kuressaare II scores more
43%

Kuressaare II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kuressaare II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Pärnu 1–3 Kuressaare II

Kuressaare II beat Pärnu 3-1 in Esiliiga B on June 20, 2024.

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.