Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pärnu vs K-Järve JK Järve — Esiliiga A 2026

Pärnu
Pärnu
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
9/17/2022Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 29Pärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pärnu59%
×Draw19%
K-Järve JK Järve21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pärnu
2.35
K-Järve JK Järve
1.35

Pärnu creates 74% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 69 away

creates per match

Pärnu
1.58
K-Järve JK Järve
0.96

allows per match

Pärnu
1.74
K-Järve JK Järve
3.13

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par
K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw
79%
Pärnu or K-Järve JK Järve
81%
Draw or K-Järve JK Järve
41%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+
38%
K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals
90%
Pärnu 2+ goals
68%
Pärnu 3+ goals
41%
K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
74%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
39%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)
74%
K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.13 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 1.58 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.35

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.96 + Pärnu defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pärnu scores more
59%
level
19%
K-Järve JK Järve scores more
21%

Pärnu at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pärnu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Pärnu 6–0 K-Järve JK Järve

Pärnu beat K-Järve JK Järve 6-0 in Esiliiga A on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.