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Pärnu vs Flora Tallinn — Cup 2020

Pärnu
Pärnu
FT
1 – 4
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
8/3/2020CupCup · 32nd FinalsPärnu Rannastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pärnu27%
×Draw19%
Flora Tallinn54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pärnu
1.85
Flora Tallinn
2.63

Flora Tallinn creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Pärnu
3.00
Flora Tallinn
4.00

allows per match

Pärnu
1.25
Flora Tallinn
0.71

finishing

Pärnu+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pärnu ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Pärnu or draw
46%
Pärnu or Flora Tallinn
81%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
73%

Winning margin

Pärnu wins by 2+
13%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Pärnu 1+ goals
84%
Pärnu 2+ goals
55%
Pärnu 3+ goals
28%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
93%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
73%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Pärnu (draw refunded)
33%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pärnu at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 4.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pärnu attack 3.00 + Flora Tallinn defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Flora Tallinn attack 4.00 + Pärnu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pärnu scores more
27%
level
19%
Flora Tallinn scores more
54%

Flora Tallinn at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pärnu vs Flora Tallinn

Flora Tallinn beat Pärnu 4-1 in Cup on August 3, 2020.

The match was played at Pärnu Rannastaadion in Pärnu.