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Parndorf vs Wiener Viktoria — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Parndorf
Parndorf
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Wiener Viktoria
Wiener Viktoria
J. Pointner 8'
S. Buliga 2'
D. Rotter 55' (pen)
10/3/2025Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 10Heidebodenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Parndorf52%
×Draw24%
Wiener Viktoria25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parndorf
1.74
Wiener Viktoria
1.13

Parndorf creates 54% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 94 away

creates per match

Parndorf
1.59
Wiener Viktoria
1.07

allows per match

Parndorf
1.18
Wiener Viktoria
1.89

finishing

Parndorf+0.00on par
Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parndorf ↓

Wiener Viktoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Parndorf or draw
75%
Parndorf or Wiener Viktoria
76%
Draw or Wiener Viktoria
48%

Winning margin

Parndorf wins by 2+
28%
Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Parndorf 1+ goals
82%
Parndorf 2+ goals
52%
Parndorf 3+ goals
25%
Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals
68%
Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals
31%
Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Parndorf (draw refunded)
68%
Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parndorf at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

Wiener Viktoria away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.89 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parndorf attack 1.59 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.74

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.07 + Parndorf defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Parndorf scores more
52%
level
24%
Wiener Viktoria scores more
25%

Parndorf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Parndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
S. Buliga
8'
J. Pointner
55'
D. RotterPenalty
Parndorf
Wiener
W. Fischer
Manager: W. Fischer
T. Polster
Manager: T. Polster

Regionalliga - Ost: Parndorf 2–1 Wiener Viktoria

Parndorf beat Wiener Viktoria 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on October 3, 2025.

Goals: S. Buliga (2'), J. Pointner (8'), D. Rotter (55' pen).

The match was played at Heidebodenstadion in Parndorf.