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Parndorf vs Favoritner AC — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Parndorf
Parndorf
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Favoritner AC
Favoritner AC
4/3/2026Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 24Heidebodenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Parndorf54%
×Draw23%
Favoritner AC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parndorf
1.81
Favoritner AC
1.09

Parndorf creates 66% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 46 away

creates per match

Parndorf
1.59
Favoritner AC
1.00

allows per match

Parndorf
1.18
Favoritner AC
2.02

finishing

Parndorf+0.00on par
Favoritner AC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parndorf ↓

Favoritner AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Parndorf or draw
77%
Parndorf or Favoritner AC
77%
Draw or Favoritner AC
46%

Winning margin

Parndorf wins by 2+
30%
Favoritner AC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Parndorf 1+ goals
84%
Parndorf 2+ goals
54%
Parndorf 3+ goals
27%
Favoritner AC 1+ goals
66%
Favoritner AC 2+ goals
30%
Favoritner AC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Parndorf (draw refunded)
70%
Favoritner AC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parndorf at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

Favoritner AC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parndorf attack 1.59 + Favoritner AC defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.81

Favoritner AC attack 1.00 + Parndorf defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Parndorf scores more
54%
level
23%
Favoritner AC scores more
23%

Parndorf at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Parndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Parndorf
Favoritner
W. Fischer
Manager: W. Fischer
D. Kadir
Manager: D. Kadir

Match Recap: Parndorf vs Favoritner AC

Parndorf beat Favoritner AC 3-2 in Regionalliga - Ost on April 3, 2026.

The match was played at Heidebodenstadion in Parndorf.