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Parndorf vs Edelserpentin — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Parndorf
Parndorf
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Edelserpentin
Edelserpentin
10/18/2024Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 12Heidebodenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Parndorf68%
×Draw18%
Edelserpentin14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parndorf
2.35
Edelserpentin
0.97

Parndorf creates 142% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 44 away

creates per match

Parndorf
2.84
Edelserpentin
1.11

allows per match

Parndorf
0.82
Edelserpentin
1.86

finishing

Parndorf+0.00on par
Edelserpentin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parndorf ↓

Edelserpentin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Parndorf or draw
86%
Parndorf or Edelserpentin
82%
Draw or Edelserpentin
32%

Winning margin

Parndorf wins by 2+
45%
Edelserpentin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Parndorf 1+ goals
90%
Parndorf 2+ goals
68%
Parndorf 3+ goals
41%
Edelserpentin 1+ goals
62%
Edelserpentin 2+ goals
25%
Edelserpentin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Parndorf (draw refunded)
83%
Edelserpentin (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parndorf at home — creates 2.84, concedes 0.82 · 73 matches

Edelserpentin away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.86 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parndorf attack 2.84 + Edelserpentin defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.35

Edelserpentin attack 1.11 + Parndorf defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Parndorf scores more
68%
level
18%
Edelserpentin scores more
14%

Parndorf at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Parndorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Parndorf vs Edelserpentin

Parndorf beat Edelserpentin 2-0 in Landesliga - Burgenland on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Heidebodenstadion in Parndorf.