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Parma vs Udinese — Serie A 2026

Parma
Parma
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Udinese
Udinese
Dejan Kulusevski 34'
Riccardo Gagliolo 19'
1/26/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 21Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Parma36%
×Draw27%
Udinese37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma
1.27
Udinese
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

creates per match

Parma
0.98
Udinese
1.05

allows per match

Parma
1.52
Udinese
1.57

finishing

Parma-0.02on par
Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Parma or draw
63%
Parma or Udinese
73%
Draw or Udinese
64%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+
16%
Udinese wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals
72%
Parma 2+ goals
36%
Parma 3+ goals
14%
Udinese 1+ goals
72%
Udinese 2+ goals
37%
Udinese 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)
49%
Udinese (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 24 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 0.98 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Udinese attack 1.05 + Parma defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Parma scores more
36%
level
27%
Udinese scores more
37%

Udinese at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
Riccardo GaglioloParmaParma · D
7.9

Match Events

19'
Riccardo Gagliolo
30'
William Troost-Ekong
34'
Dejan Kulusevski↳ Matteo Scozzarella
45'
Rolando Mandragora
49'
Rodrigo Becão
56'
Mato Jajalo← Rodrigo Becão
59'
Hernani
62'
Vincent Laurini← Riccardo Gagliolo
68'
Vincent Laurini
73'
Kastriot Dermaku← Jasmin Kurtić
74'
Ilija Nestorovski← Seko Fofana
80'
Sebastien De Maio← William Troost-Ekong
87'
Alberto Grassi← Matteo Scozzarella

Possession

50%Parma

Shots

11Parma

Pass accuracy

50%Parma

Statistics

ParmaUdinese
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots19
5Corners11
12Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots19
3On Target4
5Off Target12
3Blocked3
8Inside Box9
3Outside Box10
Passing
50%Possession50%
411Total Passes382
339Accurate Passes313
82%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls9
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Serie A: Parma 2–0 Udinese

Parma beat Udinese 2-0 in Serie A on January 26, 2020.

Goals: Riccardo Gagliolo (19'), Dejan Kulusevski (34').

Parma controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma.