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Parma vs Spezia — Serie A 2018

Parma
Parma
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Spezia
Spezia
10/25/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 5Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Parma43%
×Draw25%
Spezia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma
1.50
Spezia
1.23

Parma creates 22% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 57 away

creates per match

Parma
1.05
Spezia
1.00

allows per match

Parma
1.46
Spezia
1.96

finishing

Parma+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Parma or draw
69%
Parma or Spezia
75%
Draw or Spezia
57%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+
21%
Spezia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals
78%
Parma 2+ goals
44%
Parma 3+ goals
19%
Spezia 1+ goals
71%
Spezia 2+ goals
35%
Spezia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)
58%
Spezia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.46 · 92 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.96 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 1.05 + Spezia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.50

Spezia attack 1.00 + Parma defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Parma scores more
43%
level
25%
Spezia scores more
31%

Parma at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Parma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Parma 2–2 Spezia

Parma and Spezia drew 2-2 in Serie A on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma.