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Parma vs Spal — Serie A 2018

Parma
Parma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spal
Spal
3/8/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 26Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Parma42%
×Draw26%
Spal32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma
1.41
Spal
1.19

Parma creates 18% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 38 away

creates per match

Parma
1.05
Spal
0.92

allows per match

Parma
1.46
Spal
1.76

finishing

Parma+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Parma or draw
68%
Parma or Spal
74%
Draw or Spal
58%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+
20%
Spal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals
76%
Parma 2+ goals
41%
Parma 3+ goals
17%
Spal 1+ goals
70%
Spal 2+ goals
33%
Spal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)
57%
Spal (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.46 · 92 matches

Spal away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 1.05 + Spal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.41

Spal attack 0.92 + Parma defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Parma scores more
42%
level
26%
Spal scores more
32%

Parma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Parma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Parma 0 – 1 Spal

Spal beat Parma 1-0 in Serie A on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma.