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Parma vs Sampdoria — Serie A 2018

Parma
Parma
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
7/19/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 34Stadio Ennio Tardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Parma41%
×Draw26%
Sampdoria34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parma
1.43
Sampdoria
1.28

Parma creates 12% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 94 away

creates per match

Parma
1.05
Sampdoria
1.10

allows per match

Parma
1.46
Sampdoria
1.81

finishing

Parma+0.00on par
Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parma ↓

Sampdoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Parma or draw
66%
Parma or Sampdoria
74%
Draw or Sampdoria
59%

Winning margin

Parma wins by 2+
19%
Sampdoria wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Parma 1+ goals
76%
Parma 2+ goals
42%
Parma 3+ goals
17%
Sampdoria 1+ goals
72%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
37%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Parma (draw refunded)
55%
Sampdoria (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parma at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.46 · 92 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.81 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parma attack 1.05 + Sampdoria defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sampdoria attack 1.10 + Parma defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Parma scores more
41%
level
26%
Sampdoria scores more
34%

Parma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Parma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Parma 2–3 Sampdoria

Sampdoria beat Parma 3-2 in Serie A on July 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma.